Calculate the scoreline with the highest expected SuperBru points.
In the fantasy sports game SuperBru, you score points
depending on how well you predict the score of a game, as governed by
these rules.
This tool uses Expected Goals data from
Understat
to generate a prediction for the Expected Goals of the home and away team. Using these predictions, the probability of different scorelines are estimated.
A simple Python script calculates the expected SuperBru points for each of these scorelines and outputs the best choice.
The best prediction for each combination of home and away xG is shown in the plot below. Curiously, no draw other than 0-0 is ever the best
Superbru prediction. This stems from the fact that draws have fewer scorelines that are considered 'close' by the SuperBru scoring system than wins have.
